Don’t expect another Bitcoin price ‘catastrophic dump’ — Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) price trajectory is looking to favor bulls going forward, statistician Willy Woo believes as the market nears $11,000.

In a series of tweets on Sept. 14, Woo highlighted strength in market composition and said that current price levels could be a useful entry point for investors.

Woo: Little chance of “catastrophic” BTC price dump

“Another impulse of coins changing hands has completed, the next directional move over the coming weeks is likely upwards,” he summarized.

“It’s very unlikely we’ll see any kind of a catastrophic dump in price from here.”

Woo was referring to on-chain activity on the Bitcoin network seeing a spike in recent weeks as BTC/USD fell to local lows of $9,800. 

Monday saw a bounce higher toward $10,800 — a price point that analysts have already said forms a crucial pivot for further bullish momentum.

Bitcoin on-chain activity vs. BTC price 6-month chart

Bitcoin on-chain activity vs. BTC price 6-month chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Countering their optimism is the chance that Bitcoin will still drop to fill the lower of two gaps in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market at $9,600. Woo likewise noted that there was a desire for this to happen, with significant buyer support around that level.

“I’m still cautious of another short term dump to fill the gap but so far it’s looking like it’s been front-run for liquidity which is strongly bullish if we break resistance here,” he continued. 

“There’s a lot of bids in the spot order books wanting to snap up the gap in the mid-high 9000s.”

Fundamentals reinforce bullish chances

As Cointelegraph reported, various sources are demanding a fresh shake-up in BTC price action after the rejection at $12,000.

For PlanB, the quant analyst behind the stock-to-flow family of price forecasting models, the time is right for Bitcoin to follow historical precedent and launch toward $100,000.

That level represents an order of magnitude change, similar to how BTC/USD transformed from $100 to $1,000 and then from $1,000 to $10,000 in 2017.

Network fundamentals support long-term strength continuing, with the hash rate reaching all-time highs and difficulty set to follow this week. Woo agrees, noting that Bitcoin’s difficulty behavior is decidedly on the bullish rather than the bearish side.

Bitcoin difficulty ribbon vs. price historical chart

Bitcoin difficulty ribbon vs. price historical chart. Source: Woobull

“Zooming out to the mid macro (months ahead), we’re in a really nice zone of Difficulty Ribbon compression, post halvening (red verticals), this is quite a reliable indicator of bullishness,” he wrote.

Woo created the difficulty ribbon indicator in August of last year. It captures the relationship between the rate of increases in difficulty and miner selling — and hence selling pressure in BTC — giving an idea of when long-term investors should enter the market.

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